Freedom Day Is The Right Thing To Do

I did not think opening up (or not locking down) initially was smart in the UK or anywhere else. This time it is different. Here is why.

The two strategies are ZERO COVID and HERD IMMUNITY.

There is no other exit strategy.

Let me say that again in case you missed it: there is no other exit strategy.

Differentiate an exit strategy (which leads to ending the pandemic) and a tactic (tools to get there). “Ending the pandemic” means either the virus disappears (in this case not magically but after battling it with tools), or the population is so immune to the virus that the number of deaths is tolerable. For those who cringe at the “tolerable death” thought, compose yourself and think about the flu, or better yet, automobiles. We don’t lockdown for the flu and we don’t ban automobiles because thousands of people die in them every year.

So HERD IMMUNITY it is, whether you like it or not. HERD IMMUNITY is reached with either vaccines or infection or a combination of both.

Lockdowns are used as a tool to buy time. I was a big supporter of immediate lockdowns in the early stages of the pandemic, as that was the most rational thing to do at that time of uncertainty and lack of knowledge about how the virus spreads and behaves. In fact, I was a big supporter of ZERO COVID strategy.

There is no free lunch. We cannot be in lockdowns forever: if not from the virus we will die from other people killing us, or we will eventually kill ourselves. This would all have ended a long time ago, like it did in China, with fewer deaths, less economic damage and fewer and shorter lockdowns, had we in the West chosen ZERO COVID as the strategy and worked together with the rest of the world to make it happen. But that is water is sadly under the bridge and there is no bringing it back.

Is now the right time to lift the lockdown? As Boris Johnson has asked, if not now then when? Should we wait another six months? Another year? Ten years? We have the vaccines which, although less effective at preventing infection with the new Delta strain, protect very well against hospitalization and death. UK is around 50% fully vaccinated and vaccines are available to anyone who wants them without wait. Should the UK wait until 100% of the people are vaccinated, or at least 80%? When will that be? What if it never happens because people refuse to vaccinate, as they are refusing now because of their anti-vax beliefs? What will make more people vaccinate? Another media campaign? How about more information on social networks? Yeah. No.

People who have not yet been vaccinated have not done so NOT because they are misinformed or because they cannot afford a vaccination or are still waiting in line. Nothing will make those who refuse to vaccinate now get a vaccine except PERHAPS either 1) LAW FORCING THEM DO SO; 2) FEAR OF DEATH.

FEAR OF DEATH is not going to happen through any media or internet campaign, unfortunately. That sort of campaign has happened and whoever bought it — bought it. The only way people may choose to vaccinate because they are scared of death is if unvaccinated people — their friends and family — start dying. If that happens, that would be unfortunate, but I don’t see another way, and it’s the risk they consciously took. It’s the choice they made again after being warned that COVID can be very dangerous. It is the choice they made again after they were asked if this was their final answer. If their unvaccinated friends or relatives don’t die happen, well even better, they will get sick, and if they don’t die, get over it but help towards our collective goal of HERD IMMUNITY. Which is what we all want.

To conclude, given:
1) the end game of HERD IMMUNITY and refusal to consider ZERO COVID;
2) plenty and freely available vaccines and information about its benefits and having given everyone plenty of information and time to get both doses of the vaccine and become (at least partially) immune;
3) recognizing that lockdowns are far from “free” and not just an inconvenience but cause death in all groups including those who are vaccinated;
4) knowing that a vaccination mandate is not going to happen;

Additionally,
5) that hospitalization and death rates appear to be much lower than in previous waves,

THE ONLY RATIONAL DECISION at this time is to reopen and call upon the personal responsibility of every citizen according to their personal situation to take precautions, which is exactly what the UK government plans to do. I am fully aware that some people will get sick and die, including some who are vaccinated, although the vast majority of those who get hospitalized and die will be those who chose not to vaccinate. I don’t think there is another, better option given the constraints. This is the “cheapest” option in terms of lives saved. UK, or anybody, cannot afford more lockdowns. They will lead to more death.

For a different conclusion and decision, one of the premises above has to change. I don’t think any will or can in the real world. Inaction is a choice too, in this case the default action is lockdowns.

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