Do Extended Unemployment Benefits impact Unemployment Rates?

If the benefits were a factor in workers’ reluctance to re-enter the workforce, then one would expect the 25 “red” states which ended extended benefits early to see an uptick in employment figures. Looking at the difference from June to July 2021, we find that in the 25 red states unemployment dropped by 0.13%, and by 0.16% in the 25 blue states. The difference is statistically insignificant, but nevertheless it’s noteworthy that states continuing extended unemployment benefits have a slightly larger decrease in unemployment rates.

Once the August unemployment data come in, the analysis can be updated to see whether there is a discernible trend of whether (as seems the case now) there seems to be virtually no connection between the amount of weekly benefits, the ending of the extended benefits, and the impact on the unemployment rate.

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